It’ll be Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina XIII in the Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open quarterfinals.
The two rivals will square off for the 13th time after both came through tough matchups in straight sets on Thursday. No. 1 seed Sabalenka needed just 1 hour and 15 minutes to defeat No. 16 seed Liudmila Samsonova 6-3, 6-2, and No. 8 seed Rybakina followed with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Beijing finalist Linda Noskova.
Wuhan: Scores | Draws | Order of play
Three-time Wuhan champion Sabalenka extended her unbeaten record at the tournament to 19-0, and her active winning streak to eight matches. Having lost two of her first three matches with Samsonova in 2022 and 2023, she has now won three in a row — all in straight sets — over the past 14 months. Rybakina, making her first appearance in Wuhan since reaching the 2019 quarterfinals on her debut, returned to that stage for a second time with her third win in as many meetings with Noskova.
How did Sabalenka and Rybakina advance?
It’s not unusual that Sabalenka and Rybakina’s performances revolve around the quality of the serve, but the stroke was on particularly sweet form for both players here. Neither even faced a break point — despite landing just 49% of first serves, in Rybakina’s case. (Sabalenka’s first serve percentage was a tidier 66%.)
Sabalenka was particularly unbothered on serve. She conceded just 10 points behind her delivery in total; Samsonova could only once muster multiple points on return in a single game. Rybakina was pushed harder, but won all four deuce points (across three separate games) that she played in the match.
Rybakina also had to be patient to quell a valiant performance from Noskova. The 20-year-old Czech, bidding to reach back-to-back WTA 1000 quarterfinals, managed to save the first six break points she faced with clutch aggressive play, and overall fended off 10 out of 12. But at 4-3 in the first set, it was lucky number seven for Rybakina as Noskova double faulted to drop serve for the first time.
How has the Sabalenka vs. Rybakina rivalry broken down so far?
Their quarterfinal on Friday will be something of a full-circle moment: Sabalenka and Rybakina first faced each other (at pro level) at the same stage of the same tournament back in 2019. Sabalenka won that match 6-3, 1-6, 6-1, the first of four three-set wins in a row to start their rivalry — including a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 triumph in the 2023 Australian Open final, the only major title match they have contested so far. Overall, Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 7-5.
However, once Rybakina got on the board with a 7-6(11), 6-4 win in the 2023 Indian Wells final, she has begun turning it in her favour. The Kazakhstani player has won five of their last eight meetings, and in fact leads the head-to-head on outdoor hard courts 5-4 overall — Sabalenka has not defeated Rybakina on hard courts since the 2023 WTA Finals Cancun. The last time they played, Rybakina needed just 75 minutes to wrap up a 6-1, 6-4 win in the Cincinnati quarterfinals in August.
Match length is another factor to keep an eye on. Four of Rybakina’s five wins in the series have come in straight sets; the only time she has won a decider against Sabalenka was at the 2024 WTA Finals Riyadh, where she came through 6-4, 3-6, 6-1. By contrast, all seven of Sabalenka’s wins have been three-setters, including a 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(6) escape from quadruple match point down in this year’s Berlin quarterfinals. The takeaway from that statistic seems to be that while Rybakina can find a level that permits her to shut Sabalenka out completely, if the match comes down to the wire then Sabalenka has the edge.
How is Rybakina’s bid to make the WTA Finals Riyadh faring?
Two spots are up for grabs at the WTA Finals Riyadh, and three of the top four players in contention for them have all advanced to the Wuhan quarterfinals. As well as Rybakina, Jessica Pegula came through 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Jasmine Paolini advanced after a right thigh injury forced Clara Tauson to retire trailing 3-6, 6-1, 3-1.
Paolini and Rybakina remain in eighth and ninth position respectively, and have put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack — particularly given 10th-placed Alexandrova’s loss, which means that no one is able to overtake Rybakina directly in Wuhan this week. The exits of both 11th-placed Tauson and 15th-placed Noskova have also helped.
Pegula’s win also means that neither Paolini nor Rybakina can overtake her this week. However, seventh-placed Mirra Andreeva — who lost her Wuhan opener to Laura Siegemund on Tuesday — is in their sights. Both Paolini and Rybakina, who are on opposite sides of the draw, can overtake Andreeva if they reach the final. Rybakina needs to advance further than Paolini to overtake the Italian this week; if they lose in the same round, Paolini will remain ahead.