There was supposed to be a big game in Chapel Hill, N.C., on Saturday.
Instead, Clemson visits North Carolina in a matchup of ACC teams with a combined 3-5 record — 2-5 if you count only games against Football Bowl Subdivision schools. Make that 0-5 if we’re talking about only games against Power 4 opponents.
At Clemson, coach Dabo Swinney has been defending his record and trying to explain how a team loaded with players from last year’s conference champion has regressed.
At North Carolina, six-time Super Bowl winner Bill Belichick appears to have simply assembled a poor roster.
“What I think they miscalculated is with the way they were taking (players) in the portal and paying dudes,” said one Group of 5 head coach, granted anonymity to discuss his encounters with the Tar Heels in the offseason player acquisition cycle. “It made me wonder, did they actually understand the landscape they were in? Did they understand that they’re in the ACC, not like Conference USA or the Sun Belt? Like, we got beat by North Carolina on a bunch of kids. I was like, why the f— is North Carolina beating us on kids? When I keep running up against the same P4s over and over again in recruiting, I’m like, all right, they’re gonna suck.”
Belichick, 73, inherited a program that had won 23 games in the previous three years under Mack Brown. His first college roster has about 70 new players, between transfer portal additions (41) and a freshman signing class.
The sheer size of the portal class pushed it to be ranked ninth in the country by 247Sports, with seven four-star players. The results haven’t been there. Two of UNC’s most impactful transfers, linebacker Kimori House (second on the team in tackles) and cornerback Thaddeus Dixon (tied for the team lead with three passes broken up), followed Belichick’s son Steve from Washington, where he had been the defensive coordinator.
The Tar Heels opened the season with a 48-14 loss at home to TCU. They picked up victories against Football Championship Subdivision Richmond and Charlotte, which is 0-3 against FBS competition. The next real test for UNC came at UCF, which is also in the first year of a new regime. Coach Scott Frost’s Knights dominated North Carolina 34-9.
The UCF game was filled with Tar Heel mistakes. They couldn’t tackle. They had coverage busts. They couldn’t run the ball and got lit up by a team playing with its backup quarterback.
Now, Clemson comes to town looking for a get-right game.
UNC ranks last in the ACC in yards per play (4.90) and second-to-last in yards per play allowed when facing Power 4 opposition (6.58). North Carolina ranks No. 121 in the country in yards per play and 108th in third-down conversion rate at under 35 percent.
On the bright side, the Tar Heels have the No. 17 high school recruiting class for 2026, though again, volume is helping. UNC has 37 commits, led by four-star quarterback Travis Burgess, the No. 65 overall prospect in the class of 2026.
Better than Caleb Downs?
The most celebrated defensive player in the country entering this season was Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, an All-American and leader on last year’s national champions.
The Buckeyes (4-0) are again No. 1 in the country, and Downs has 15 tackles and an interception for one of the stingiest defenses in the country. Ohio State is allowing 5.5 points per game.
However, some coaches who have faced Ohio State say Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese is surpassing Downs as the most valuable of the Silver Bullets.
“(No. 8) is their best player on that defense,” said one offensive coach, granted anonymity to speak candidly about an opponent.
The 6-4, 243-pound Reese is tied for the team lead in tackles with 25, with two sacks and a team-best two passes broken up. The junior’s stat line doesn’t present the whole picture.
“He is a super freak, and he’s not just an athletic freak,” the coach said. “They ask him to do a lot. I think if you replaced him with an average player, they’d be in some trouble. If you replaced Caleb Downs with an average player, they’d be fine. (Reese) is a hybrid body, who is long, rangy and explosive. He is smart enough and he can cover, blitz and hold up against linemen, can cover tight ends, can cover backs. He’s playing their ‘adjustor’ position, so he rushes as a down lineman in pass-rush situations. He’s just really impressive.”
CFB’s new org charts
The number of official FBS head coaching vacancies is now six with the firing of Sam Pittman by Arkansas last Sunday. Five of the six open jobs are in Power 4 conferences: Stanford, UCLA, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State are the other P4 openings, and Kent State is playing under interim Mark Carney after firing Kenni Burns this spring after an investigation into ethics concerns.
All the P4 programs looking for coaches have a history of success, but none would be considered blue bloods. In a sense, all are searching for the right formula to return to winning ways.
In speaking to industry sources, all these schools are facing more than a search for their next coach. They’re trying to develop a strategy for how the football program and to some degree the athletic department should be run going forward.
A big part of that is investment. Virginia Tech has announced a plan to dramatically increase the funding of its athletic department. The school’s board of visitors approved a plan this week to add $229 million to the athletic budget over the next four years.
One way or another, every school is looking for more money and a plan to present to prospective coaching candidates on how that money will be spent in the era of revenue sharing and name, image and likeness deals.
Then there is the org chart. Even schools with head coaches locked in have been adding general managers, personnel staffers with knowledge in salary cap and contract management.
There are real questions in the business about who exactly is going to be hiring new coaches at some of these schools and to whom the coach will be reporting.
The question that schools are facing: Do they want a general manager who works with the coach or for the coach, or do they want a structure in which the coach works for the GM?
Stanford became the first school to clearly put the GM in charge of the coach when it hired former star quarterback Andrew Luck for that role. Luck’s former NFL coach, Frank Reich, is working as interim coach at Stanford but is not expected to stay beyond this season.
If other schools want to follow that model, the best time to do it is when hiring a new coach. How many coaches would go for that?
“If you’re an assistant coach and you have a shot at a $6-7 million a year job, are you going to say no?” one industry source said.
But if you’re a sitting head coach with a good situation, having to report to a GM or having a GM with as much or maybe even more control of personnel might not sound so great.
A Power 4 assistant coach who has spent time in the NFL said that although colleges might want to implement a professional-style front office structure, they’d be jamming a square peg into a round hole.
“NFL teams have owners,” the coach said. “There is a boss at the top who hires a GM, and the GM hires the coach.”
During a coaching cycle that promises to be very active, how schools approach their hires could be as interesting as who they hire.
Ty Simpson’s development
Ty Simpson had only thrown 50 passes in his first three seasons at Alabama. The former five-star recruit was part of the Tide’s 2022 class that ranked No. 2 in the country. Only four other members of that class (Jihaad Campbell, Tyler Booker, Jam Miller and Danny Lewis) didn’t transfer out. Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide are no doubt thrilled Simpson stuck it out.
Simpson has thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions through four games. He’s completing over 69 percent of his passes and has helped the Tide convert on 55 percent of third downs.
“He’s a guy that is very poised,” said a defensive backs coach who has faced Alabama this year. “He’s got a lot of control at the line of scrimmage. They put a lot on his plate as far as checking plays and getting them into the right stuff. They checked a lot against us. He has really good accuracy and he’s a way better athlete than people give him credit for. He can extend plays, evade rushers and tuck the ball for 20. He can definitely do some stuff. He’s a really good quarterback.”
Simpson seems to be working well with new Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who reunited with DeBoer this offseason. Grubb ran the offense under DeBoer at Washington in 2023 when quarterback Michael Penix Jr. took the Huskies to the College Football Playoff title game.
The rival coach who played Alabama earlier this season said Grubb has really opened up the offense.
“He definitely wants to push the ball more vertically, down the field, with deep intermediate routes,” the coach said. “It’s more like they’re gonna throw to set up the run.”
The Tide sit No. 99 in the country in yards per carry, down from No. 49 last year. It might not seem plausible that Alabama could compete for a national title running the ball like that, but it’s worth noting that DeBoer’s 2023 Washington team finished 65th in the country in yards per carry.
Less talent, better team?
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin had one of the most talented teams in school history last year, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, one of two first-round NFL Draft picks along with defensive tackle Walter Nolen.
Ole Miss had five players selected in the first 77 picks, and three more Rebels were picked on the third day. Despite all of that talent, Ole Miss finished 9-3, with losses to Kentucky and Florida keeping the Rebels out of the CFP.
This year’s team appears primed to make another run at Playoff contention behind an unlikely budding star. Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has stepped in for the injured Austin Simmons, and the Ole Miss offense is as explosive as ever. The No. 4 Rebels lead the nation in plays of 20-plus yards (38) and are third in the SEC in yards per play at 7.06.
The 6-1, 200-pound Chambliss led Ferris State to a Division II national title last year, throwing 26 touchdown passes and running for 25 scores. For the Rebels, he has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his three starts, including last week’s 24-19 victory against LSU, adding 245 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in those games.
“With Trinidad Chambliss in there, they’re damn good on offense,” said one rival head coach. “Their O-line is average. But Chambliss is really crafty. The Simmons kid probably has a bigger arm. He’ll probably wow you with how he throws it (in routes) on air. Chambliss has just got moxie. He’s got enough arm talent. He throws a really catchable ball. He’s probably 4.6-something (speed). He gets to top speed fast though, and he’s got good short-area quickness. He is very sudden. He’s a pain in the ass to play.
“I think Ole Miss is real. I think this version of Ole Miss plays harder and with more of an edge than they did last year. They don’t have any Walter Nolen or anybody like that, but they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder.”
Virginia veterans
Virginia has been one of the best stories of the season’s first month. Head coach Tony Elliott, who entered the year on the hot seat, has led the Cavaliers to a 4-1 start, including a 46-38 overtime win over Florida State. Virginia is up to No. 4 in the ACC in yards per play after finishing 14th last year and is No. 2 in third-down offense, up from No. 15.
Quarterback Chandler Morris, a sixth-year senior who began his career at Oklahoma in 2020 before going to TCU and then North Texas, epitomizes one of the most seasoned teams in college football. Against Florida State, the Cavaliers started eight players on offense who have already graduated, and the other three starters were seniors. They started five more graduates on defense.
“It all starts with their maturity,” a rival defensive coordinator told The Athletic. “They are damn near all graduates, so they have all these old veterans. It’s actually pretty cool. They’ve taken all their licks and wounds early, and now they get to whip up on people. Those guys on offense, they execute. They have an identity and they play really confident football. It all starts with Morris. He makes a lot of off-script plays. He’s seen it all. He knows where they want to go with the ball, and if that’s not open and this isn’t open, he knows how to run around and make plays. He throws it just OK. But he’s just so savvy.”
J’Mari Taylor, a grad transfer from North Carolina Central, has emerged as one of the best running backs in the ACC. “He’s a big-time back,” said the defensive coordinator. “He’s not that big, not that fast, but you are not gonna bring him down on first contact. He sets up his blocks well. He’s physical and really runs behind his pads.”
“Morris runs the show and does a damn good job, but it’s Taylor’s toughness and running style that is really the identity of UVA’s offense,” said another DC. “It’s also an offense that can throw different wrinkles at you to force you into making mistakes with tempo, Wildcat, unbalanced formations, and they have no holes or suspect areas on this offense for you to try and exploit.”
(Photo: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)