The ALDS continues on Sunday, Oct. 5, as the New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 and the Detroit Tigers aim to take a 2-0 series lead over the Seattle Mariners.
Toronto blew out New York in Game 1 on Saturday, winning 10-1, but the Yankees are set as road favorites in Game 2 with ace Max Fried on the mound.
In the Tigers-Mariners matchup, an 11th-inning single by Zach McKinstry gave Detroit a 3-2 win and a 1-0 series lead. Now, even though they’re on the road, the Tigers are favored to win Game 2 with reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal on the bump.
With the Yankees and Mariners aiming to even their respective series, how should we bet on this action?
Here’s a look at my best bets for Sunday’s ALDS games.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-132) vs. New York Yankees
Max Fried was great against Boston in the wild card round, but he really struggled in his last two starts against Toronto in the regular season.
In those outings, Fried allowed nine hits and 10 runs (eight earned) in 11.1 innings of work. While he certainly could pitch much better than that, the Toronto lineup lit up this Yankees staff in Game 1.
The Jays are one of the best offenses in MLB, leading the league in batting average during the regular season, and I have very little trust in the Yankees’ bullpen once Fried exits. New York has an MLB-worst 8.25 bullpen ERA in the playoffs.
Trey Yesavage is a bit of a wild card on the Toronto side, but I’m willing to bet on this offense to keep this game close.
As home underdogs this season, the Jays are 18-6 on the run line.
Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-137) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Tigers went 21-10 with Skubal on the mound in the regular season, and they’re 1-0 so far in the playoffs.
The lefty was elite against the Guardians in the wild card round, allowing just three hits and one run across 7.2 innings of work. Now, he takes on a Seattle lineup that scored just two runs in Game 1 against Troy Melton and this Detroit bullpen.
While I don’t think Castillo (3.54 ERA) has been bad this season, he does have a concerning expected ERA (4.10, 43rd percentile).
There’s no doubt that Skubal is the better starter in this matchup, and the Detroit bullpen has been solid in four playoff games, posting a 3.06 ERA.
I think this is a pretty reasonable price to bet on Skubal and the Tigers, and bettors could always wager on just the first five innings if they only want to bet on Detroit when Skubal is likely in the game.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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