What Joel Embiid’s return means for the Philadelphia 76ers and the East playoff picture

PHILADELPHIA — When Joel Embiid barreled down the court docket inside the ultimate 30 seconds of Tuesday night time’s recreation towards the Western Convention-leading Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, the sellout crowd inside Wells Fargo Middle rose to its ft.

In the meantime, 76ers coach Nick Nurse held his breath.

“Go sooner?” Nurse mentioned postgame, when requested what was going by way of his thoughts when he noticed Embiid driving the paint within the closing moments of a one-point recreation after swiping the ball from Thunder guard Josh Giddey.

Seconds after the steal, Embiid, in his first recreation in eight weeks after present process a process on the lateral meniscus in his left knee, jumped into Thunder heart Chet Holmgren on the rim. The collision despatched the rookie into the photographers behind the basket and Embiid to the free throw line. “Man, I used to be attempting to get the and-one,” Embiid mentioned postgame.

Embiid knocked down a pair of free throws, and after a ultimate sequence that noticed Oklahoma Metropolis miss three potential game-tying 3-pointers inside the ultimate 13 seconds of the sport, Embiid and the 76ers had been in a position to have a good time a 109-105 victory over the Thunder. Philly’s MVP huge man was formally again.

Total, it was an uneven efficiency for Embiid: 24 factors on 6-for-14 taking pictures however 12-for-12 from the foul line, to associate with 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals and 6 turnovers in practically half-hour on the court docket. Most significantly, Embiid appeared to emerge unscathed from a well being perspective, simply as he did from Saturday’s prolonged 5-on-5 follow, his first full session together with his teammates since Golden State Warriors ahead Jonathan Kuminga inadvertently fell on his leg throughout a recreation on Jan. 30.

Now, the 76ers shift to Miami for one of many largest remaining video games within the common season Thursday night time. Embiid, who was visibly exhausted at occasions throughout Tuesday’s win, mentioned the aim is to play in that recreation, too.

“We simply gotta take it daily, see how the knee responds tomorrow,” Embiid mentioned. “We acquired a giant one in Miami. If I am good to go, clearly go.”

Tuesday’s recreation, whilst fellow All-Star Tyrese Maxey and the workforce’s different beginning guard, De’Anthony Melton, watched in road garments, was an indication that this contender, with lower than two weeks to go within the common season, is near turning into complete.

“I need us to go on a run to complete the season,” Embiid mentioned. “So, we acquired to take [the wins], and maintain competing.”

As the remainder of the Japanese Convention’s contenders watch Embiid and the Sixers over their ultimate six video games of the common season, this is how the reigning MVP’s return may shake up the playoff race.

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What Embiid means for Philadelphia on the court docket

For Philadelphia, the following two weeks are about two issues: getting Embiid up-to-speed and doing every part attainable to keep away from the play-in event. Whereas Embiid’s return was an apparent enhance, it confirmed how a lot his workforce has modified since he went out in late January. Earlier than Tuesday’s recreation, Embiid had by no means performed a single second with beginning guards Kyle Lowry and Cameron Payne and sixth man Buddy Hield — all three arrived at or close to the Feb. 8 commerce deadline. Embiid’s victorious comeback additionally got here with fellow All-Star Tyrese Maxey sitting out for a second consecutive recreation with a hip harm.

When Embiid is on the court docket this season, Philadelphia is scoring 120.6 factors per 100 possessions and permitting 110.5. These would rank because the second-best offense and third-best protection within the NBA over a full season. However throughout Embiid’s harm, Philadelphia was outscored by 4.9 factors per 100 possessions, the ninth-worst mark within the league in that span.

Now, there are causes for optimism that the workforce assembled across the reigning MVP is best than the roster when Embiid went down. Lowry, the North Philadelphia native, has hit 39% of his 3-pointers as a Sixer, offers stable two-way play and has a worthwhile reference to 76ers coach Nick Nurse from their shared time along with the Toronto Raptors.

Hield, in the meantime, is the most recent in a line of sharpshooting guards that transfer properly off the ball who ought to slip proper into some glorious two-man recreation actions with Embiid, simply as J.J. Redick and Seth Curry have with him up to now. And Nicolas Batum, after lacking a number of chunks of time resulting from harm earlier within the yr, has turn out to be a staple in Philadelphia’s lineup who may excel alongside Embiid and Harris within the 76ers’ frontcourt. One unknown is the standing of guard De’Anthony Melton, a key two-way participant for Philadelphia and, if wholesome, Maxey’s associate within the workforce’s beginning backcourt. Melton has performed in simply 5 of the 76ers’ final 44 video games due to ongoing again points, and his return timetable stays unclear.

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Embiid’s affect on the East playoff image

Thursday’s matchup in Miami with the Warmth looms as a digital must-win for the 76ers to climb larger than eighth getting into the East play-in event. Miami additionally gained Tuesday, beating the New York Knicks, and can enter Thursday 1.5 video games up within the standings with a 2-1 lead within the season collection.

A Warmth win Thursday would imply they should go simply 3-3 down the stretch to guarantee ending forward of Philadelphia by advantage of the head-to-head tiebreaker. (The Sixers, who misplaced the season collection 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers, fare no higher in a possible three-team tie.) Miami finishes with back-to-back house video games towards the lottery-bound Toronto Raptors and is prone to a minimum of break up its ultimate six video games.

If Philly wins to tie the season collection 2-2, that may push the tiebreaker to convention file. At 29-18, the Warmth are presently forward of the 76ers (27-21), however that is not settled but. Maybe extra importantly, a win Thursday would give Philadelphia a practical path to easily end forward of Miami within the standings.

After Miami, the 76ers end the season with 4 of their ultimate 5 video games towards groups with bottom-eight data. Though the Orlando Magic have a greater file, Philadelphia would possible be favored within the remaining recreation by advantage of taking part in at house with a wholesome Embiid.

If the Sixers win out, it is believable they may go each the Warmth and Pacers and keep away from the play-in altogether. Projections primarily based on ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI) confirmed Philly claiming a top-six seed in 6% of simulations earlier than Tuesday’s win.

The place the 76ers end has necessary implications for the highest half of the East standings as properly. Not one of the convention’s prime groups need to face the reigning MVP within the first spherical as a reward for incomes a top-three seed.

If Philadelphia wins the second play-in recreation and claims the eighth seed it could imply a matchup towards the top-seeded Boston Celtics for the second straight yr after the groups met within the 2023 convention semifinals. Count on renewed consideration on the potential of prime seeds getting an opportunity to select their opponents sooner or later.

Whereas the Sixers could be an atypically difficult No. 8 seed, Boston would absolutely be favored in a first-round collection. So too would the No. 2 seed Milwaukee Bucks, albeit by a narrower margin. Whichever workforce finishes third out of the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic, may discover themselves a first-round underdog towards Philadelphia with Embiid.