Chart wizard and regular penner-of-previews Jake Mailhot is on vacation, so you get the other, worse Jake for your preview today. Please direct all complaints directly to Mr. Mailhot. I’m sure he’d love it.
The Mariners are playing hot at the moment, coming off a three game sweep of the Chicago White Sox and are 7-3 over their last ten games. Meanwhile the M’s two biggest playoff rivals, the Astros and Yankees, are playing each other for a three game set starting today. There’s blood in the water in the American League, and it’s time for the Mariners to go on a run.
Hot on the heels of winning a three-game series against Anaheim, the Rays are nevertheless in a tough stretch as a team. They trundled through a 7-18 month of July, all but destroying their hopes of yet another classic pesky Rays playoff run. FanGraphs has their playoff odds at just 7%. But of course, as Mariners fans, we are familiar with how fluky those projections can be. The Rays have already taken one series on their west coast road trip. They aren’t to be underestimated, despite a team wRC+ of 89 while on the road.
Offensively, the Rays have been the second worst team in MLB since July 1st with a team wRC+ of just 84, beating out only the Pittsburgh Pirates (77). Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz have been their lone standouts, but haven’t been able to make up for black holes in other parts of the lineup. And you thought the M’s offense had it bad.
Rasmussen has by far been the Rays’ best pitcher this year. His 2025 All-Star campaign has been characterized by the dominance of his slider which has been one of the best in baseball among starters. The 89 mph slider accentuated his four-seam fastball which, while averaging around 95 still catches hitters off-guard when they sit waiting for the slider. He also has a very effective sinker which he can go to in order to get a ground ball.
Boyle has been a welcome surprise for the Rays. After last year’s disastrous 6.52 ERA, 4.68 FIP campaign in Oakland he was traded to Tampa Bay and has spent 2025 bouncing between the big league club and AAA Durham. He’s been effective in his three starts for the Rays, and has also made a handful of long relief appearances out of the bullpen. But the underlying metrics may point to an upcoming regression. The disparity between his ERA and FIP is large, as is the gap between his xFIP (4.62) and his actual FIP. With the Mariners having such a home run focused lineup, Boyle’s excellent HR/FB% may be about to shoot up.
Deadline acquisition Adrian Houser has had a shockingly good 2025 campaign to this point. After spending 2024 getting hit all around the National League, he’s had an incredible resurgence as an American League pitcher. He spent the first half of the season with the White Sox where he was their best starter. He’s only made one start so far as a Ray, where he was blown up to the tune of 5 runs on 11 hits in 5.2 IP. He’s primarily a sinkerballer, and he’ll mix in the rare changeup, curveball, fourseamer, and slider with about equal frequency. His sinker is good at getting him a ground ball, hitters are still successful against it to the tune of 115 wRC+ against that pitch.
After being swept by the Red Sox, the Astros went on to go 2-1 against the Marlins while the Mariners were busy sweeping the White Sox. They go on now to play the Yankees for three games, who finally halted their losing streak by eking out a one-run win over the Rangers. The Rangers are now hosting the first place Phillies for some interleague play.