Live Nation & Goldman Sachs Are Bullish On Live Music. Others Are Concerned

(Hypebot) — Two reviews paint a really constructive image of the stay music in 2024 and past. However the brand new Goldman Sachs ‘Music In The Air’ examine and the newest Stay Nation report back to buyers solely tackle the highest of the market.

The numbers are spectacular.

Goldman Sachs predicts 6.5% development

In response to the Goldman Sachs “Music In The Air” report, “the stay music trade continued its robust rebound in 2023 with estimated revenues of $33.1 billion in 2023 versus $26.5 billion in 2022) primarily based on the traits reported by numerous trade gamers reminiscent of Stay Nation and CTS Eventim.”

“the resilience of live performance spending amidst elevated inflation”

“In 2023, we estimate that the (stay music) trade grew 25%…” the report continues. “That is pushed in our view by a robust schedule that featured many artists who had not toured since pre-COVID, specifically Taylor Swift and Beyonce, driving each attendances (owing to bigger venues) and pricing energy (as a result of perceived shortage of those artists within the brief time period).”

“This additionally as soon as once more demonstrates the resilience of live performance spending amidst elevated inflation and strain on client spending and the rising structural demand for experiences, notably amongst Gen Z and Millennials. Wanting ahead, we anticipate stay music to stay a beautiful market with a strong development outlook (GSe +6.5% 2024-30 CAGR, from +5% beforehand), given robust secular demand and provide tailwinds.”

Lengthy-Time period Progress Forward

“Over the long run, we imagine that demand for stay leisure will probably be pushed by i) supportive demographic and client traits, and ii) the elevated consciousness of and social worth attributable to stay occasions caused by streaming and social media,” the report concludes.

Learn the Goldman Sachs Music In The Air Report right here.

Stay Nation attendance up 21%

Income was up 21% to $3.8 billion at Stay Nation in Q1 2024, and attendance grew 21% to 23 million followers with 77 million fee-bearing tickets bought.

Its Ticketmaster division has bought 112 million fee-bearing tickets to this point this 12 months, up 4%.

“Our Q1 outcomes display that stay occasions stay a precedence for followers world wide,” stated Stay Nation president/CEO Michael Rapino in its newest report back to buyers. World fan demand is stronger than ever, extra artists are out on the highway, and extra venues are being added to convey them collectively.”

Extra Stay Nation Q1 stats

• Live performance ticket gross sales for area and amphitheater reveals have been up greater than 10%
• 85% of full-year reveals at giant venues are already booked, in comparison with 75% final 12 months
• The corporate will add 12 or extra main venues globally in 2024/25 including a complete capability for over 8 million
• Attendance almost doubled for worldwide artists throughout the highest 50 international excursions in comparison with 5 years in the past
• Latin Music
  • Ticket gross sales for Latin reveals within the U.S. are up greater than 10% over final 12 months
  • Confirmed U.S. Latin reveals for Latin are up roughly 40%

Impartial Artists, Venues & Promoters Wrestle

Just about all the constructive numbers and predictions from Goldman Sachs and Stay Nation tackle the highest 5% of the stay music market.

Ask the artists, venues, and promoters working under the stadium, area, amphitheater, and huge theater stage, and they’re going to let you know they’re dealing with skyrocketing prices and decrease attendance brought about partly by elevated competitors on the high finish of the market.

The UK misplaced 125 smaller music venues final 12 months, and Australia misplaced 1,300 or one-third of its small and mid-sized music venues for the reason that begin of the COVID pandemic. t

Whereas no agency numbers exist for the US, dozens of venues, unbiased promoters, and brokers inform Hypebot they’re struggling too.

Even on the high finish of the pageant market, ticket gross sales at Coachella have been reportedly down 15%, and the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Pageant, Los Angeles’ Seaside Life Pageant, and Daytona Seaside’s Welcome to Rockville festivals all did not promote out this 12 months.

Tomorrow’s Headliners

Past the instant impact on stay music’s 95%, weak point on the mid and decrease ranges of its ecosystem is a warning signal for its high finish.

The place will tomorrow’s giant venue headliners come from with out a strong stay touring coaching floor to nurture them?

 

Bruce Houghton is the Founder and Editor of Hypebot, a Senior Advisor at Bandsintown, President of the Skyline Artists Company, and a Berklee Faculty Of Music professor.