If You'd Invested $5,000 Into Oklo Stock In 2024, Here's How Much You'd Have Today

Oklo aims to reshape the nuclear industry with its Aurora microreactors.
But it doesn’t expect to deploy its first microreactors until late 2027 or early 2028.
A bit too much optimism might be baked into its sky-high valuations.
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Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), a producer of microreactors for nuclear plants, went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in May 2024. Its stock opened at $15.50 on the first day, but sank to a record low of $5.59 less than four months later. But today, Oklo’s stock trades at about $83 each. A $5,000 investment at its all-time low would be worth more than $74,200 today.

Let’s see why Oklo’s stock soared and if it’s still worth buying.

Oklo is generating a lot of buzz for two reasons. First, Sam Altman, the CEO of Open AI, previously served as its chairman up until its public debut. Second, Oklo aims to disrupt traditional nuclear reactors with its Aurora microreactors.

Image source: Getty Images.

The Aurora microreactor only generates 1.5 MWe of power, while a traditional nuclear reactor pumps out about 1,000 MWe of power. However, the Aurora microreactors can be chained together in smaller deployments to generate 15 to 100 MWe of power. That flexibility makes them ideal for off-grid systems in remote areas that aren’t well-suited for traditional reactors.

Its microreactors are powered by metallic uranium fuel pellets, which are denser, more resistant to high temperatures, and less expensive to fabricate than the uranium dioxide fuel pellets used in traditional nuclear reactors. These microreactors can operate for roughly a decade without being refueled — since their pellets are reprocessed and recycled in a closed loop — while traditional reactors need to be refueled every two years.

Therefore, Oklo’s microreactors could represent a major leap forward for nuclear power. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved its permit to build its first reactor in Idaho in 2019. However, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) hasn’t approved its combined license for those reactors yet, and it doesn’t expect to deploy them until late 2027 or early 2028. The U.S. Air Force also recently chose it to build a small nuclear reactor in Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, but that contract is also contingent on the NRC’s approval of its reapplication for an operator license and probably won’t generate any revenue until 2027-2030.

Oklo’s stock is difficult to value because it isn’t generating any revenue and it’s racking up steep losses. It posted net losses of $32 million in 2023 and $74 million in 2024, and analysts expect it to post another net loss of $75 million in 2025.

It still held $227 million in cash and equivalents at the end of June, but a lot of that cash is coming from its secondary offerings. It’s already increased its number of outstanding shares by 21% since its public debut, and that dilution should continue for the foreseeable future.

Oklo currently has a market cap of $12.2 billion. That’s more than 870 times the $14 million in revenue that analysts expect it to generate in 2027 when it deploys its first microreactors. That meme stock valuation suggests that too much optimism is baked into its shares, while most of its insiders have been net sellers over the past 12 months.

The bulls expect Oklo’s growth to accelerate over the next few decades as the secular expansion of the cloud and AI markets generate fresh tailwinds for nuclear power. But it’s still a speculative, pre-revenue company that still faces competition from small modular reactor (SMR) makers like Nuscale Power and established nuclear giants like Westinghouse, which plans to start piloting its eVinci microreactor in 2029.

At these valuations, it’s smarter to trim your position in Oklo if you’re sitting on some big unrealized gains. It might eventually ramp up its production and reshape the nuclear reactor market — but its stock could easily plummet more than 90% and still be considered expensive.

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

If You’d Invested $5,000 into Oklo Stock in 2024, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today was originally published by The Motley Fool

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