Russia in the Arctic is a “grave concern” to NATO, Iceland’s foreign minister has said, as Moscow forges ahead with its military buildup and economic plans for one of the most austere, but strategically important, regions.
“The Arctic remains central to Russia’s strategic calculus, and its activities in the region go well beyond defensive measures,” Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told Newsweek. “Russia’s military posture in the Arctic is of grave concern.”
Newsweek has reached out to Russia’s defense ministry for comment.
Russia has for years busied itself with reopening its Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic, and with constructing new facilities across the region. Moscow has heavily invested in its Northern Fleet based in the Murmansk region, which borders NATO members Finland and Norway.
Pavel Lvov / Sputnik via AP
Several major military sites, including those home to many of Russia’s nuclear-armed submarines, are clustered around the Arctic cities of Murmansk and Severomorsk. Despite the toll three-and-a-half years of full-scale war in Ukraine has taken on Russia’s land forces, Moscow’s Arctic capabilities are largely untouched.
The Arctic is the region of the world most impacted by climate change, the melting ice opening up new routes for both military and civilian traffic, not least cutting short trade paths from Asia out into the Atlantic.
“This has implications for both NATO and Russia, as the operational environment becomes more dynamic and contested,” Gunnarsdóttir said.
Russia, in control of more than half the Arctic coastline, sees climate change as both an opportunity to extract resources and a real threat to its security, analysts and officials from NATO countries say.
“As an Arctic nation, this new reality must be appropriately considered and addressed,” Gunnarsdóttir said. “NATO has responded decisively to these developments.”
NATO has in recent years shored up its Arctic presence, not least by heavily investing in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities. But Russia’s submarines are notoriously hard to keep track of, and it is often acknowledged that NATO isn’t quite there yet with bringing its ASW up to scratch.
And Moscow is simply more accustomed to operating in the harsh Arctic conditions, watchers of the region say. Russia’s icebreakers far outnumber those belonging to any other nation, and observers point to the country’s historical pride in being able to operate comfortably in some of the most extreme conditions.
Suspension of Cooperation
Seven other states, including Canada, the U.S. and Norway, all of which are NATO members, have territory in the Arctic Circle. Finland and Sweden joining the alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 boosted NATO’s Arctic presence.
All Arctic states—including Russia—are part of the Arctic Council. The council doesn’t have a military remit, but is more focused on other regional issues like global warming and pollution.
But even the Arctic Council isn’t exempt from the reverberations of war in Eastern Europe, and from feeling the impact of the pariah status Russia gained among Western nations in the past few years.
Political cooperation across all eight Arctic states was suspended in 2022, although some scientific collaboration and virtual meetings are now happening, the council says.
Denmark took over from Norway as chair of the Arctic Council in May this year. Russia had led the collective when its tanks rolled over into Ukraine in early 2022, and has said it wants normal functioning of the council to resume.
“We cannot hide the fact that we don’t have a normal modus operandi,” said Torsten Kjølby Nielsen, the Kingdom of Denmark’s Senior Arctic Official.
“After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine we do not have a fully fledged cooperation and, of course, this has consequences,” he told Newsweek.
Nielsen declined to offer details on exactly what type of discussions were still taking place with Russia, but said the kingdom’s Arctic officials were still in touch directly with Moscow.
But data flows between Arctic members have been heavily impacted, making the work of thousands of scientists focused on the region more difficult, said Ambassador Kenneth Høegh, the chair of the Senior Arctic Officials. There are far fewer scientific projects happening now than before, Nielsen said.
“The efficiency isn’t what it should be,” Høegh told Newsweek. But “what happens in Canada has an influence in Greenland, [and] what happens in Russia—Siberia—has an influence in Alaska,” he said. “We need data from the whole region.”
NATO, Russia and China
Scientists are looking north, but so are economists, businesses and armed forces. Russia sees the Arctic, now revealing previously more hard-to-access resources, as a vital part of its economic strategy, experts say.
Over the past 10 years, Russia’s emphasis on the Arctic has been fed by the “belief that a lot of the economic resources that Russia is depending on are in the Arctic,” from hydrocarbons to fisheries, said Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist focusing on the Russian military with CNA, a U.S.-based not-for-profit research and analysis organization.
Russia’s Arctic continental shelf contains more than 85 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 17 billion metric tons of oil, Russian state media reported in 2022. Other figures put the number at 13 billion metric tons of oil.
Layered on top of this is the Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane hugging the Russian coast in the Arctic that connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, chops down transit times and helps Moscow transport hydrocarbons to key markets, including in Asia. Climate change is making the route—which Russia sees as largely in its sphere and hopes to develop—more accessible.
China is one of the main users of the Northern Sea Route, although its attention wasn’t necessary welcomed by Russia in the beginning, said Katarzyna Zysk, professor of international relations and contemporary history at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS).
Beijing was accepted as an observer at the Arctic Council in 2013, and has labeled itself a “near Arctic” state.
But China and Russia have drawn closer in recent years, and just before Moscow invaded Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping inked a “no limits” strategic partnership.
Under the previous Biden administration, the U.S. said in mid-2024 it was seeing a “growing cooperation” between China and Russia in the Arctic, with Beijing now a “major funder of Russian energy exploitation in the Arctic, and increasingly militarily, with Russia and China conducting joint exercises off the coast of Alaska.”
The joint U.S.-Canadian command, NORAD, said in July last year it had intercepted two Chinese bombers along with two Russian aircraft close to Alaska.
Beijing has said it is an “important stakeholder in Arctic affairs.”
“China’s growing interest in the Arctic adds another layer of complexity,” Gunnarsdóttir said.
“While not an Arctic state, China is expanding its presence through scientific, economic and strategic initiatives,” the Icelandic minister said. “All this is a cause for concern and underscores the need for vigilance and unity among NATO allies.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Chinese Embassy in Washington for comment.
On a military level, “Iceland has actively advocated for closer cooperation among the seven Arctic allies,” Gunnarsdóttir added.
The waters close to Iceland, the U.K. and Greenland form what is commonly dubbed the GIUK gap, which naturally restricts Arctic access to and from the north Atlantic. Being able to pass through the GIUK gap is an important part of Russia’s submarine strategies.
“The Arctic is not a remote or isolated region—it is a central arena in global security,” said Gunnarsdóttir.