The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons start the 2025 NFL regular season in an NFC South showdown in Week 1. Last season, Tampa Bay logged a 10-7 record and won the division. The Falcons finished in second place with an 8-9 campaign. However, the Falcons swept the season series in 2024, including a 36-30 overtime win over Tampa Bay at home.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 7. Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5 points in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds at bet365 Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before making any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks or same-game parlays, be sure to see the Week 1 NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model and check out the latest NFL odds. Bet on Buccaneers vs. Falcons at bet365, where you can get $300 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet with the latest bet365 bonus code:
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Here are the model’s top SGP picks for Buccaneers vs. Falcons:
- Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
- Over 46.5 total points (-110)
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-135)
- Parlay odds: +534
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Buccaneers -2.5
Tampa Bay owned a 5-3 against the spread record as the away team in 2024 and a 10-7 ATS record in regular-season games. The Bucs have the edge at quarterback with Baker Mayfield’s 103 career starts compared to Michael Penix’s three starts. Roll with the veteran quarterback here in a divisional contest. SportsLine’s model is backing Tampa Bay to cover the spread in over 60% of simulations.
Over 46.5 total points
Tampa Bay will be without Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin, but still have multiple dynamic weapons like Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. In 2024, Tampa Bay was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense (29.5). Meanwhile, during Penix Jr.’s three starts, Atlanta scored at least 24 points in each contest, including two games with 30-plus. SportsLine’s model is projecting these teams to combine for 53 points, with the Bucs taking a 31-22 win. You can find this total at bet365, where you can get $300 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Mayfield was tied for second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (41) in 2024. The Oklahoma product tossed at least two passing scores in 12 games last season, including three touchdown passes in both games vs. Atlanta in 2024. The Falcons also ranked 31st in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed (34) last season. SportsLine’s Machine Learning Model predicts that Mayfield will throw 2.0 passing touchdowns in this outing. This prop is available at bet365, where you can get $300 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:
More NFL picks for Week 1
You’ve seen the model’s top Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta picks for Week 1. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 1 NFL game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.