Dylan Cease trade grades: Padres get ‘A’ for acquiring ace, White Sox long-awaited return comes in solid

The Padres and White Sox finalized what ought to operate the remaining blockbuster of the MLB offseason on Wednesday evening time in a deal that sends right-handed starter Dylan Cease to San Diego in change for a three-prospect, four-player package deal deal headlined by two right-handed starters and a teenage outfielder. Cease, who accomplished second in American League Cy Youthful Award voting in 2022, had beforehand been associated to the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, and others all by means of the winter.

As is always the case when an infinite commerce happens, CBS Sports activities actions is correct right here to provide instantaneous analysis of the deal by handing out grades to every aspect. You would discover that below. First, though, let’s analysis the whole phrases of the commerce:

Now, let’s get to it.

Padres grade: A

Cease, 28, was the runner-up for the American League Cy Youthful Award in 2022. He’s moreover one amongst a handful of pitchers to notch on the very least 200 strikeouts in each of the ultimate three seasons. The other members of that membership are Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Kevin Gausman — or, three of the very best pitchers in your entire majors. Cease took a step once more last season, posting a 97 ERA+ that registered as his worst full-season mark so far.

The Padres, along with a slew of various teams, wanted Cease all of the similar as a result of assumption that there’s nonetheless proverbial rooster left on the bone. CBS Sports activities actions lined that selling stage in further ingredient earlier this winter. Considered one of many causes teams suppose Cease might probably be even larger than he has been rests on his elite arsenal. To quote ourselves:

Cease’s arsenal choices two well-above-average pitches. His fastball clocked in at 95.6 mph last season, and featured virtually 19 inches of induced vertical break. For these new to the IVB metric, that may be a flowery method of writing that his heater has a great deal of “rising” movement to it.

For some perspective on how unusual that combination of velocity and rise is, here’s a complete report of the other starting pitchers (min. 10 begins) whose fastballs averaged on the very least 95 mph and 18 or additional inches of IVB in 2023:

Cease’s sweeping slider, his fundamental pitch last season, has generated 40% or additional whiffs in each of the ultimate three years. In 2023, his slider allowed opponents to hit .216 — and that represented the worst mark of his career.

Get Cease away from the White Sox and proper right into a additional nice pitching setting — by means of the ballpark, the safety, and the infrastructure — and in addition you might even see him shortly improve upon his career 113 ERA+. 

If the Padres are to make a crucial run on the playoffs this season, they needed their rotation to overperform. They misplaced 60% of ultimate 12 months’s starting 5 to free firm — that’s Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez, for reference — and their blockbuster commerce that despatched outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees netted them two potential mid-rotation arms (Mike King and, successfully, Drew Thorpe) and a seize bag of back-end and swingmen varieties.

Cease changes the dynamic. He can slot in alongside Joe Musgrove and King to offer the Padres doubtlessly three above-average starters on the doorway of the rotation. (That is the place we offer the caveat that King, whereas not lacking in experience, has been spotty alongside together with his effectively being.) Will that be ample to info the Padres once more to the postseason? We’ll uncover out. At minimal, it larger positions them to make a run every this 12 months and subsequent (oh, correct, Cease just isn’t a free agent until after the 2025 season).

Chances are you’ll question if the Padres, projected to play correct spherical .500 ball, must be shifting 4 avid gamers (three of them prospects) for a relatively short-term addition. We respect when teams exterior of the very best tier do what they may to make a push. Other than, the Padres may not have given up each of their prime two pitching prospects, counting on the evaluator. (Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling being the plain contenders.) A.J. Preller just isn’t new to inspiring these types of questions — together with Cease makes it additional potential that he’ll get to proceed prompting them for on the very least one different 12 months, too.

White Sox grade: B

As we detailed just some weeks prior to now, holding onto Cease until the deadline under no circumstances made sense for the White Sox. The draw again hazard was too good. Cease might’ve gotten injured, or had one different down 12 months. With one of the best ways that teams overvalue workforce administration as of late, it might’ve been actively harmful to the potential return to hold onto him — significantly considering that the White Sox don’t have any precise aggressive aspirations this 12 months.

Whether or not or not new frequent supervisor Chris Getz was bluffing all alongside, or the Padres hit him with merely the exact present is irrelevant. The underside line is he ended up making a deal at virtually the ultimate second — one which further bolsters a White Sox farm system that has obtained a very good amount of tender love and care courting once more to last deadline.

We wrote up Thorpe earlier this winter, when he was traded from the Yankees to the Padres. Throughout the curiosity of working smarter, no more sturdy, right here is that writeup:

Thorpe, 23, is a former second-round determine who accomplished last season with 5 Double-A begins. Complete, he compiled a 2.52 ERA and a 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Although Thorpe just isn’t a tricky thrower by any measure, he’ll get by due to a high-grade changeup and good command. The Padres have confirmed they’re eager to promote avid gamers in an aggressive technique. It couldn’t qualify as a shock, then, if Thorpe ends up debuting sometime subsequent summer season.

Iriarte, 22, break up last season between Extreme- and Double-A. He notched a 3.49 ERA and a 2.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the entire whereas punching out virtually 27% of the batters he confronted. Iriarte has an excellent fastball-slider combination that he delivers from a low three-quarters slot. He does have an prolonged arm stroke that helps make clear why he’s struggled alongside together with his command. Ultimate 12 months, he walked a batter every completely different inning. The winds of change have impacted the profile and expectation of the start pitcher place recently, that implies that Iriarte nonetheless has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Zavala, 19, break up last season between Extreme- and Low-A. He hit .243/.391/.406 with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases. These marks don’t leap off the online web page, nevertheless it is worth noting that he was larger than three years youthful than his frequent opponent at every ranges. Zavala is a left-handed hitter with an infinite leg kick and above-average raw energy. He has struggled with strikeouts all by means of his expert career, and his swing-and-miss tendencies may cap his batting frequent upside. Zavala is youthful and established ample to foresee him rising proper right into a starting outfielder, potential in a nook.

Wilson, 29, made 102 appearances for the Padres over the previous two years. He compiled a 3.48 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 2.34 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Wilson threw his sweeping slider 60% of the time last 12 months, producing a 27.7% whiff payment and holding opponents to a .165 batting frequent. Wilson has 4 years of workforce administration remaining. He’s extra more likely to best serve the White Sox as a potential deadline commerce candidate.

When the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes, a free agent at 12 months’s end, to the Orioles for a pair of big-league-ready prospects and a draft determine, we gave them a C and wrote that it felt a bit fast. Proper right here, the White Sox obtained that further piece. Credit score rating it to Cease’s further 12 months of administration, Getz’s bluff, or Preller’s willingness to pony up as needed. Whatever the case, we anticipate every teams have function to be content material materials with this deal.