The bye week is over and Boise State is back in action. The Broncos open Mountain West play on the road against Air Force in the Broncos’ first game against an FBS opponent since August. Boise State has won their conference opener every season since joining the Mountain West in 2011, and 25 straight conference openers dating back to 1999, when the Broncos were in the Big West conference and Dirk Koetter was in his second season as head coach.
Info
Boise State (1-1) at Air Force (1-1)
Kickoff: 5:00 PM on CBS Sports Network
Odds: Boise State -10, O/U 51.5
What to expect from the Falcons
Simply, the triple option. Head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 19th season in charge of the Falcons, and very little has changed in philosophy since Boise State last faced off with Air Force in 2023. Calhoun’s offense is going to run clock, run the option and hope to win ugly, physical football games. They’ve shown to be slightly more willing to throw the ball this year, with 40 passes called in their two games to start the season, including 9 dropbacks in a win against Bucknell to open the season.
Last week against Utah State, the Falcons’ defense was exposed, surrendering 49 points and 8.4 yards/play to the Aggies. Air Force particularly struggled on early downs, surrendering an FBS-worst 0.68 EPA/play on early downs against FBS opponents. If Boise State’s offense is as good as predicted in the preseason, they should be able to move the ball against the Falcons.
How does Boise State’s personnel match the option?
Through two games Boise State has almost exclusively played in a base 4-2 front with a nickel on the field in the secondary. Against the option, you typically want to play with a heavier box as Air Force lives in 1-2 wide receiver sets. Historically, Boise State has either played a safety in the box like a WILL linebacker (JL Skinner in 2021 and 2022 or Khafari Buffalo in 2019), or played three linebackers. Who ends up being that flex piece this week? Jaden Mickey said this week that he’ll move to boundary safety this week so they can get a bigger body at nickel, confirming that there will be some personnel changes. History suggests they’ll either play Boen Phelps and go with three linebacker looks, or move a safety into the box to play like a linebacker. If they go that route, I would imagine it’s Derek Ganter Jr. or Ty Benefield playing that big-bodied nickel role.
Under Andy Avalos (and Bryan Harsin before him) the Broncos chose whether to go safety/linebacker at WILL depending on personnel. In years where they had three linebackers they liked, they would go with the extra linebacker. When Avalos had a head-hunting safety like JL Skinner, they moved him down into that role. Spencer Danielson was on those staffs, and has said they feel really good about Phelps, Jake Ripp and Marco Notarainni at linebacker, so I would predict it’s a lot of three linebacker looks this weekend. How the Broncos choose to attack the Falcons’ offense will be one of the key storylines I’m looking for in this game.
Can Boise State’s run game create explosive plays?
Air Force’s run defense has been leaky (to say the least) in 2025. Against Utah State they allowed an explosive run on 13% of Utah State run plays, which ranks dead last in the FBS against FBS opponents. If Eastern Washington was a get-right game for Boise State’s offense, Air Force is a stay-right opportunity for the offense, and particularly the run game. Rushing explosiveness post-Jeanty was going to be one of the key factors for Boise State’s success this season. Against USF, the Broncos had just 1 explosive run (3%), but bounced back with 5 against Eastern Washington (13%). Expectation should be for the Broncos to continue to create explosives against Air Force, but fewer than 3 explosive runs would be cause for concern moving forward.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Pass game efficiency: Air Force’s defense is 135th in FBS in pass game success rate allowed, giving up a successful play on 57% of opponent dropbacks. The Broncos don’t necessarily need to hit the big ones against Air Force, but they need the consistent 7-12 yard completions that will move the chains.
Don’t get beat deep: One of the ways an option team can kill a defense is with timely shot plays. They lull you to sleep with 10, 15, even 20 straight run plays before hitting a play action and getting a receiver behind the defense. Bronco Nation is well aware of Boise State’s issues giving up explosives, and this week is especially important to stay disciplined over the top.
Don’t lose on Special Teams: Boise State’s special teams issues have been plentiful the last year and a half, but Air Force has had struggles of their own, ranking 125th in Special Teams SP+. Against an option team, field position and hidden points carry more weight than normal given there tends to be less plays per game. Boise State doesn’t even need to win the special teams battle, but they can’t afford to give up big returns, fakes, or miss kicks this week.
Key players
Coming into the season the expectation was that Latrell Caples could be Boise State’s leading receiver in 2025, and if not #1, close to it. However, through two games he has just 5 catches for 69 yards, and is on track to finish within 10 yards of last season’s output, where he was the Broncos’ third leading receiver. Caples will be key in Boise State having an efficient pass game, given his strength navigating in the intermediate and middle parts of the field, and he’s due for a bigger performance this week.
On the other side of the ball, great linebacker play is essential to stopping a triple option attack. They need to be able to take on pullers, maintain option assignments, and occasionally get sideline to sideline on sweep plays. I expect all three linebackers to get plenty of playing time, and I’m most interested in what Jake Ripp brings on Saturday. He’s an athletic linebacker who looked excellent against USF, but had a quieter outing against Eastern Washington. It will be important for Ripp to bounce back this week against an Air Force offense that has been potent through two games.
Medical Tent
During conference play, Boise State will be releasing official injury reports as part of new Mountain West Conference standards. Here is this week’s report:
OUT: Breezy Dubar (HB)
QUESTIONABLE: Sterling Lane II (EDGE), Bol Bol (EDGE)
Analytic Projections
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
My Power Ratings: Boise State by 14.5 (34-20)
SP+: Boise State by 10.6 (33-22)
Sagarin: Boise State by 6.7 (35-28)
ESPN FPI: Boise State by 11.5
CFB Graphs (Parker Fleming): 11.1 (30-19)
Final Prediction:
Boise State 33, Air Force 17
I think this is a good matchup for the Broncos. Through two games, as well as last season, Air Force’s defense has had issues giving up rushing explosives and stopping methodical passing attacks. Expect the combination of Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley and Malik Sherrod to break off multiple big runs, while Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples have big days in the passing game. As long as the offense stays turnover-free, they should be able to move the ball and put up points on Air Force. Similarly, the part of Boise State’s defense that has looked best through two games is the front seven. Against USF, they consistently won the line of scrimmage and outside of one late carry, stopped the Bulls’ running backs from getting going. Air Force will likely hit some explosives, both on the ground and in the air, but on a down-to-down basis I think the Broncos should stop Air Force more often than not.
As you can see from the previous analytics section, I’m lower on Air Force than most of the country. I had Utah State +5 in the gambling article last week, and would have this line closer to Boise State -14 than the -10 it currently is. Anything less than a convincing Boise State victory would be of concern for me, and I’m confident Boise State moves to 2-1 this weekend, and extends their conference-opener win streak to 26 straight victories.
Nathan Carroll is a part-time contributor for Bronco Nation News and host of the TBA Basketball Podcast. Nathan has worked for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team, specializing in charting player data at the FBS level. Previously, he graduated from Boise State’s Honors College with a degree in Quantitative Economics and worked 5 years in Boise State’s athletic department. Follow him on X at Nathan_26_