ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati 1/16-Finals
Michelsen – Rune: 11.08.2025 17:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alex Michelsen has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Toronto, Michelsen lost against Khachanov in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Last season in Cincinnati, the American played well. He eventually lost to Sinner in the third round in straight sets. This week, Michelsen defeated Moutet in the opening round in three tight sets.
Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Toronto, Popyrin upset him in the 1/8-Finals in three tight sets. Last season, Rune had a decent run in Cincinnati. He eventually lost to Tiafoe in the semifinals in three sets. This week, the Dane defeated Safiullin in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rune is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is hungry for success and enjoys playing in the States. The Dane was great under pressure in the opening round.
That being said, Rune winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning @1.57 @bet365
Rinderknech – Auger-Aliassime: 11.08.2025 17:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Arthur Rinderknech has won three of his last five matches. This week in Cincinnati, Rinderknech defeated Borges in the opening round in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving both breakpoints he offered. In the second round, the Frenchman upset Ruud in three sets, after losing the opening set 6-7.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Toronto, the Canadian lost against Marozsan in the opening round in straight sets. This week, he defeated Etcheverry in straight sets comfortably in the opening round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rinderknech is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated against Ruud in the second and third sets. On the other hand, Auger-Aliassime struggled with his form for the past few weeks. We expect Rinderknech to keep this match close.
That being said, Rinderknech covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Rinderknech +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Tiafoe – Humbert: 11.08.2025 18:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Toronto, the American lost to de Minaur in the 1/8-Finals in three tight sets. This week in Cincinnati, Tiafoe defeated Carballes Baena in straight sets.
Ugo Humbert has won three of his last five matches. His last match before the ATP Cincinnati was at Wimbledon, where he lost to Monfils in the opening round in five tight sets. This week, the Frenchman had a favourable opening round draw. Humbert defeated Wong in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Humbert is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Both players play at a similar level. We expect a tight match that could go either way and possibly tiebreaks.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 23.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images