Over their last 55 games, the St. Louis Cardinals have scored the fewest runs in Major League Baseball (210). YEs, even fewer than the San Francisco Giants (254 – 15th). It’s a catastrophic outcome that’s taken them from a 47-39 on June 30th (3rd in the NL Central and 44.7% playoff odds) to 4th in their division at 70-71 and with a 0.7% chance to make the postseason.
They are having a version of the Giants’ season, to be clear. The Giants went many months being unable to hit, too. They play in a tougher division, though, because you’d think the Cardinals would be even worse off with their worse-than-the-Giants pitching. Since July 1st, they have a team ERA of 4.74. Paired with a putrid lineup, this should be one of the worst teams in the sport… only, the Giants have won just two series in St. Louis since 2015, and those were 2017 & 2023.
History like that usually has no bearing on the present, of course, and the Cardinals did lose 2 out of 3 to the Rockies in a recent homestand, so, you have to like the Giants’ chances a little bit. The home run streak would seem to be in jeopardy, though, as Busch Stadium’s park factor seems to diminish that a bit, and St. Louis’s staff has the 6th-lowest HR/9 in the sport (the Giants are #1 in this area, btw).
Their best players this season have been Masyn Winn (3.5 fwAR), Sonny Gray (2.9), Willson Contreras (2.4), and Brendan Donovan (2.3). From a pure hitting standpoint, catcher Ivan Herrera (13 HR in 358 PA — 130 wRC+), Contreras (121 wRC+) and Alec Burleson (120) have been most notable. Contreras and infielder Nolan Gorman are the only two players with above average power (.195 & 1.89 ISOs, respectively). If you’re remembering that Nolan Arenado is on this team, know that he’s been on the IL since August 1st and doesn’t look to be ready to return in time for this series; so, the Giants catch a break there. Meanwhile, as good as Sonny Gray has been on the season (3.49 FIP in 158.1 IP), he’s one of the few Cardinals pitchers to surrender the longball with any regularity (1.31 HR/9). On the other hand, he rarely walks anybody (1.76 BB/9) while striking out hitters in bunches (9.83 K/9 — 13th in MLB, just ahead of Logan Webb).
Rafael Devers has hit 3 home runs in 3 career games at Busch Stadium. Patrick Bailey has 2 home runs in 5 games at Busch (and a line of .350/.409/.700 in 22 PA). Wilmer Flores has 1 career homer there. Matt Chapman has 1 home run, too, but in 9 career games (38 PA) he’s 12-for-32 with 6 walks (.375/.474/.531). He may or may not serve a one-game suspension in this series. Willy Adames also has just 1 home run at Busch, and 103 PA in 23 games thanks to being a member of the Brewers. But it’s only measured up to a line of .227/.340/.352. I mention this because of its potential hampering of his post-All Star Game line of .253/.339/.544.
Carson Seymour doesn’t engender much trust either as a starter or opener. Justin Verlander has just one career start at Busch and it went poorly (5 ER in 4 IP), and who knows about Sunday’s starter, TBD. It’s going to be tough for the Giants to continue their roll.
If you didn’t know, the Cardinals are in a transition period. Their President of Baseball Operations, John Mozeliak, is stepping down at season’s end and handing over the front office to Chaim Bloom, who has already been working behind the scenes to bring the Cardinals more in line with current industry standards. It’s a bit like the Giants’ transition from Bobby Evans to Farhan Zaidi and I only bring it up because we might be seeing one team on the rise (Giants) taking on a team that’s playing out the string to an extreme degree.
Of course, there’s a long rivalry between these two teams, so they might get up for taking two out of three against the Giants. They’re coming off winning 2 of 3 to the A’s after winning 2 of 3 on the road against the Giants’ Wild Card competitor, Cincinnati. They’ve also recently dinged the playoff chances of the Marlins, Cubs, and I suppose the Dodgers — they’ve take 2 of 3 from all those teams since August 1st. So, they might be an ugly foil.
Who: San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Where: Busch Stadium | St. Louis, Missouri
When: Friday at 5:15pm PT, Saturday at 4:15pm PT, and Sunday at 11:15am PT
National broadcasts: FOX Network (Saturday)
Projected starters
Friday: Carson Seymour (RHP 0-2, 4.74 ERA) vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP 6-2, 4.17 ERA)
Saturday: Justin Verlander (RHP 3-10, 4.29 ERA) vs. Andre Pallante (RHP 6-13, 5.38 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Sonny Gray (RHP 12-8, 4.43 ERA)
Giants: 71-69, 3rd in NL West; 7 GB NLW, 4 GB Wild CardCardinals: 70-71, 4th in NL Central; 16 GB NLC, 5.5 GB Wild Card
The Giants will win 2 out of 3 somehow.
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