Blue Jays series preview: New-look Royals head north of the border

The Royals added four new players to the roster at the trade deadline – outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, and pitchers Ryan Bergert, Bailey Falter, and Stephen Kolek (who will likely head to the minors), in addition to the acquisitions of Randal Grichuk and Adam Frazier earlier in the month. The first-place Blue Jays made plenty of moves as well, picking up relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland, as well as first baseman Ty France. The Jays just wrapped up their best month, going 18-8 in July and tying the Tigers for the best record in the American League.

Kansas City Royals (54-55) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (64-46) at Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

Royals: 3.61 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.77 runs allowed/game (2nd)

Blue Jays: 4.73 runs scored/game (8th), 4.60 runs allowed/game (23rd)

The Jays have lost four of their last five, giving up a whopping 48 runs in those games, most of them against the lowly Orioles. The Blue Jays have scored plenty of runs despite not hitting a lot of home runs. They have the highest batting average in baseball, and the lowest strikeout rate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire, hitting .373/.480/.566 with three home runs in his last 22 games. George Springer has been hotter, batting .378/.457/.622 with eight home runs in his last 29 games. Rookie Joey Loperfido has also come up and taken the league by storm, batting .396 in July, with six hits in his last nine plate appearances. Journeyman catcher Tyler Heineman has also been on a tear, filling in for starter Alejandro Kirk, batting .372/.408/.628 at home.

Ty France has been a Royals-killer, batting .392/.473/.654 with 8 home runs in 34 career games. He’s batting 12-for-25 (.480) against Michael Wacha in his career. Ernie Clement has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Addison Barger is hitting just .211/.262/.368 against lefties. David Schneider is hitting .195/.313/.341 against righties.

Only four teams steal fewer bases and only two teams take fewer extra bases on the basepaths. The Blue Jays are an above-average defensive team, with Ernie Clement a standout at third, with the outfield defense much shakier. Tyler Heineman has thrown out 10 of 24 would-be basestealers, the third-highest total for catchers with at least 10 caught stealing.

Kevin Gausman is a two-time All-Star who led the league in strikeout rate in 2023. He gave up seven runs in a start on June 19 but has a 1.96 ERA in six starts since then. He has been significantly better on the road, with opponents hitting .247/.299/.426 against him at Rogers Centre. Adam Frazier is a career .390/.405/.488 in 42 plate appearances against Gausman.

Max Scherzer missed three months with a thumb and forearm injury, but has returned and struck out a season-high 11 in his last time out against Detroit. Righties are hitting just .211/.258/.351 against him. His four-seamer is still pretty effective, with opponents hitting just .175 against it, compared to .300 against his slider. Salvador Perez is a career .323/.344/.581 with two home runs in 32 plate appearances against Scherzer.

Chris Bassitt has the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified starters at 5.6 percent. He has the 17th-highest groundball rate at 46.1 percent and the sixth-highest pop-up rate at 13.7 percent. He also leads the league in the highest rate of soft contact induced. He has given up five home runs in his last two starts and has a 6.16 ERA over his last six starts. Lefties are hitting .288/.346/.478 against him. He has been noticeably better at home with a 2.65 ERA in 12 starts.

Jeff Hoffman has converted 25 of 29 save opportunities, but he has an ugly 4.76 ERA. Brendon Little has the 11th-highest strikeout rate among relievers at 35 percent, but the second-highest walk rate at 14.6 percent. He has a 55.7 percent whiff rate on his knuckle curve. Opponents are hitting just .138 against Yariel Rodriguez’s slider. Seranthony Dominguez has given up just three earned runs in 25 ²⁄₃ innings over his last 25 games for a 1.05 ERA.

The Blue Jays have among the best records in baseball, but they have significantly outperformed their run differential. They have the second-best home record at 37-17, and they are the third-best team against opponents with a .500 record or better at 35-25. The Royals were pretty active at the deadline, and hopefully their new additions can close the gap between them and the top teams in the league.