USC Trojans’ head coach Lincoln Riley has had an underwhelming tenure in Los Angeles meeting Trojan standards – yet his track record of developing Heisman winners and leading a team to the College Football Playoff in 2018 makes him a hard coach to walk away from.
Riley is currently 26-14 with the Trojans and finished 2024 with a 7-6 record, and 4-5 in their debut Big Ten Conference. Many college football analysts believe that the 2024 results do not prove he is worth retaining, but Riley’s buyout should be considered when thinking of new candidates to lead the Trojans.
Riley’s buyout is estimated to be around $88 million, making it improbable for USC Athletics to pull the plug on him.
Analyst Joel Klatt has expressed that Rileys’ buyout may be worth it, but that it’s too early to make any bold decisions.
“If he goes 7-5 again, then there’s going to be talk. There’s going to be talk,” Klatt said on The Joel Klatt Show. “Riley’s buyout would be probably around $70 million. But then you have to look at, like, is that worth it? My suspicion is no and here’s why. He has a track record of success. You know he can do it. He’s also, right now at least in the offseason, putting together what is the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. It will not end up there but it will be high…He’s doing very well now.”
Riley currently boasts the No. 1 ranked 2026 recruiting class in the country – The Trojans’ best class in recent years – signaling a talented future for the Trojans with Riley at the helm.
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When Riley first arrived on USC’s campus, he made an immediate impact with the 2022 season, closing out his first season 11-3 and 8-1 in Pac-12 play. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and became the Trojan’s eighth overall player to earn the prestigious honor.
The following season, Williams went on to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Klatt emphasized that Riley’s first year set the bar high, which shocked everyone. Despite Riley failing to meet 2022’s expectations, a new conference and expanded CFP pool are a few components of the lack of success in recent seasons under Riley.
“I get it. I think that you’ve been disappointed lately. Let’s not be revisionist in our history because the first season that Lincoln Riley was there, they were basically Caleb Williams having a leg injury away from going to the College Football Playoff in the four-team era. Not the twelve-team era – the four-team era,” Klatt said. “You were right there at the top-end of the sport so you can’t tell me you’ve been disappointed every single year. I think that first year was too early. I think even that success surprised Lincoln Riley.”
The Trojans’ issue last year was inconsistency with talent and struggled with team chemistry, costing them important games that helped prove USC is a playoff-caliber team that can compete with the best.
Despite last season’s frustration, USC still showed flashes of the team it’s capable of becoming. The Trojans sent Penn State to overtime, and lost one-score games to Michigan and Minnesota on the road.
Klatt acknowledges that a loss is still a loss, but maintains that USC has the talent — they simply need to execute when it counts.
“Last year was a disappointment, in large part due to all the close losses. You can’t lose as many close games and not be disappointed because they felt like, I’m sure, that they were in a lot of those games and could’ve or should’ve won those games,” Klatt said. “I think about overtime against Penn State…USC had ’em, had ’em dead to rights and it didn’t go their way. They have a great chance at Minnesota, don’t get it done. Great chance against Michigan, don’t get it done. So, you get where I’m going. Like, I know it was disappointing. I do believe it can turn around.”
The Trojans enter their second season in the Big Ten after retooling their roster and a successful season recruiting. With pressure mounting on Riley, USC must turn its potential into results in 2025.